As per the provision of 2009 exit polls are prohibited during elections
Hence both conducting and publishing results of exist polls prohibited during election
My question is how these days exit polls are done ?
Prior to 2009 opinions were asked during the poll time.
Today there are so many exit polls result in the news. How these exit polls were done?
It took almost 1 month to conduct the whole election and just a single day for an exit poll. How come these polls could be done in one day ?
Am I missing something here?
Comments
These might have taken months before and based on various newspaper reports and of course corporate media's proximity towards NDA [earlier it was for UPA] they could reach a 'conclusion'. [Hope you might have heard couple of months before the how the authenticity of exit polls were compromised]
During 2009 , those exit polls had resulted NDA would come in power , but didnt happen . So veracity is totally vacillated here and its like our speculation thread type [whether optional will stay or not]. Truth will be revealed during the counting day . Till then we can wait the tamasha .
You mean that these exit polls were done months before the election?
That could be a scenario still what's the credibility of these polls if they were done months before.
Why so much buzz over the analytic of old data.?
Opinion poll
which asks whom the voter plans to vote for
Entrance poll
poll conducted before actual voters have voted
BALLOT BOX
Exit Poll
poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations
Who conducts Exit Polls?
usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters
Why Exit Poll?
to gain a perspective as how the election results are going to turn out. (as actual voting takes longer time)
Any other usage?
can be used to check large scale election fraud (for example if exit polls predict party A to get 300 seats and it gets say 150 seats – its a clear indication that something is wrong)
Problems?
exit polls by nature do include a margin of error
Criticism?
it projects a winner, hence if polling is done in parts and exit poll results are released earlier then it make create bias in minds of voters who are yet to cast their vote ( this is the reason in India exit polls data can be released only after the at-least round of polling is over)
- See more at: http://www.gs-today.com/2014/05/12/exit-polls-everything-you-need-to-know/#sthash.tN6oUp0x.dpuf
Media had to hold back from releasing the numbers because of EC directive against doing it. However, political parties, share market and others connected with media might already be knowing the poll conclusions!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_poll
None of what you said above sounds correct to me
1. The publication and dissemination of result of exit polls are restricted from - "beginning of the hours fixed for poll on the first day and continue till half an hour after closing". There is no restriction after that. Where's the 'lax' in the rule that one could take advantage of?
2. How can exit polls be conducted months before? An exit poll - by definition - is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks whom the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks whom the voter actually voted for (ref: wiki).
3. Exit polls after 2009 did not predict NDA coming to power. You are talking about 2004 polls where the forecasts got the winning direction wrong and expected the BJP-led alliance to win. In 2009, the Congress alliance as per exit polls was expected to win but not more than 200; BJP was expected to win far more seats than it actually did.
Note:- Per section 126A(a) of RPA Act, only the publication and dissemination of exit polls are restricted so it is quite obvious that they are conducted as the election process moves forward. Also, there is no such ban on opinion polls during midway elections, if they are conducted 48hrs prior to the actual polling in a particular constituency that is yet to go for polls. If conducted for a constituency that has already voted, they become exit polls by definition and thus can't be published.
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Now it is clearly mentioned that they can't be conducted then offcourse no one has authority to ask for an opinion between april 7 to may 12.
Howcome on earth opinion of a country like india be conducted within 1 day if they were not held before election.
Forgive me X_X
Why exit polls have poor track record in india.Reasons can be many but primary reason is the choice of sample size and type of sample.Also it is not easy to get the truth from a person ,specially when the person of interest is habitual in lying.It's a highly complex process and i donot think survey agencies are following all the necessary parameters.Its more like a speculation and nothing more.It basically done to keep the trp of news channel going.
check few articles here to justify my claim.
http://m.economictimes.com/articleshow/35043242.cms
m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indian-exit-polls-reveal-high-error-margins-credit-suisse/articleshow/35052202.cms