Guys, people are making many fundamental flaws while analysing strategy, cutoffs and required scores. I would like to point out the following factors that will come to play. Please cite any additional factors. This thread is not to moan about pro and anti csat - just discuss factors that will influence cutoff and prep etc. and also share your fears and worries.
1) Previously, people strong with CSAT didn't even prepare for GS prelims until last month. They instead focussed on mains. A few of the people I know have put down their optional books today, and started cramming Lakshmikanth. If the older pattern had continued, they would have done the same in July end. These 2 additional months of prep will naturally boost their marks by 10-30.
2) Previously, people who were good with CSAT ignored many prelims only topics. Even culture was ignored by many people.
3) Many people who were scoring 180+ in CSAT didn't even bother preparing for prelims. Many toppers have low marks in GS-I. Do you think they won't qualify in the new pattern? They absolutely will. They didn't study for GS-I not because they couldn't but because it wasn't needed.
4) Many people who were strong in CSAT, they didn't mark answers in GS-I unless they were absolutely sure - this year they will apply probability theory and if they are able to eliminate 2 options, they will mark and come - and an average person will easily get 8-10 marks more this way. This is especially true for those guys who are around the 'cutoff' zone. They know that their chances are less if they don't take calculated risks and when a LARGE number of people take calculated risks, the overall cutoff will be pushed upwards.
5) Not to mention, few people are going to 'retire' this year. Whereas, first attempters are coming in.
In light of this, how do you feel? Whats your strategy? What would be the cutoff? Are you still gloating??
Comments
.cz those really good in csat can't take d huge lead.
Mains competition will be the same. The ability to answer MCQ doesn't translate to an ability to read questions quickly enough, understand them and write good enough answers.
I posted this analysis in interview discussion thread. Copy pasting it here
Now, competition will be very tough. Till last year almost 2000-4000 engineers and banking aspirants used to get selected in civil services mains, leaving behind some really good humanities candidates, who scored well in GS but were not able to solve maths due to not even studying basic algebra in their school time.
Now, the effect of this decision will be similar to the last year decision of giving 2 extra attempts. Competition for interview call will increase again by 20-25% pushing out many of us next year.
Eg - I know 2 people who are gold medalist in their optional and are university toppers. They scored 100-130 in GS but were not able to give UPSC mains due to CSAT where they scored just 70-100. Now, their answer writing skills are awesome, writing is really good and legible and their main talent will be shown in mains.
So, like them a lot of people will add up this year.
and then there are 4 time repeaters who didn't gave last year and prepared hard and are coming back this year with full confidence. They are 100% going to clear GS papers and then increase the competition.
So, competition wise this is the increasing order now,
2013 Civil Services (Easiest - golden chance whoever qualified, just 325,000 gave pre)
< 2014 Civil Services (Really tough - considering many pro-players didn't get interview call, 450,000 gave pre., Many repeters added and increased competition + predictability of paper pattern and writing practice)
< 2015 ( Toughest Civil Services exam that is going to happen ever, all the above factors counting + a lot of really talented humanities candidates going to come and fight like Rukmani riyar (AIR 2) who qualified pre just by 3 marks and topped) (So, previously the competition was like between 10000-12000 people in mains as those 2000-4000 CSAT champions 65+160 were no where in race, but now it will be between 17000)
Overall the purpose of above is to motivate us all, so that we feel fortunate that we have this golden chance to give interview. Don't waste time, prepare hard and succeed this year. Next year its nightmare if CSAT is removed. All the best everyone
The competition won't be between 17,000. Why mains will be easier?
1) A 67+130 person whom you cited just topped the race.
2) Who told you its between 17,000 in the new pattern? Previously all the people who cleared prelims were either really good with gs and had moderate CSAT skills or really good with CSAT. Now its going to be between those who have articulation skills and don't have articulation skills. A person who cleared prelims in previous pattern is more likely to have better articulation skills than in the new pattern.
3) What are the most scoring papers in mains? Essay, Ethics and Optionals. A macaulay-putra would have been either be at equal footing or better would when compared to GS-god in ethics and essay papers. So the overall quality of articulation and analysis is bound to come down, but all aspirants will have at least a basic level of gs. In other words, per-capita quality will rise, but the number of people whose quality is above a threshold will be lower.
Personally, I am always more intimidated by a macaulay putra who uses analysis, language and articulation, internet, books, efficiency and great clarity of thought rather than a gs-god who is amazing at finishing textbooks.
Why mains will be harder?
a) People won't retire. New people are coming in.
Overall, I think the competition for mains will be slightly higher because a > 1+2+3.
But just getting into the final list, that could become harder.
Last year there is only 50-60 marks difference between last general candidate selected and last person to get IAS in general category. But, anyway lets stop this here. We both can just speculate and waste our time, while we should be using our time more productively for the coming challenge ahead. Good luck